Last week, I pointed out that the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was turning up around the world. While one month doesn’t make a trend, what if the Fed is making a different kind of policy error? Instead of over-tightening into a recession, what if the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing or no landing and the Fed is under-tightening and never achieves its 2% inflation objective?
The probable outcome of that path is stagflation.
The full post can be found here.
Is stagflation in our future?
September 22, 2023 at 18:32 PM EDT