First Trust Advisors L.P. Wins Consensus Economics 2022 Forecast Accuracy Award

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, and Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist, of First Trust receive distinction for their economic forecasts

First Trust Advisors L.P. (“First Trust”) announced today that it has been awarded the Consensus Economics 2022 Forecast Accuracy Award for most accurately predicting GDP growth and Consumer Price Inflation in the United States.

“The First Trust Economics team strives to be the best in the business. Our ultimate goal is to help investors understand the U.S. economy, where it’s headed, what dangers it faces, and what dangers are overblown,” said Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, and Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist, at First Trust. “To do that well requires closely following the evolution of our country’s production potential as well as public policy, and then translating these changes into a forecast for the economy. We’re happy to see that we won the award for accuracy for 2022, which was particularly hard to forecast given the unprecedented nature of the COVID lockdowns and re-openings.”

Over its 30+ year history, First Trust has become a trusted provider of investment products, advisory services and thought leadership, providing a unique perspective on the current economic climate, world events, and views on the latest economic releases. Reports and analyses include the Monday Morning Outlook, Wesbury 101 Economic Videos, Data Watch, research reports and economic calendars. Wesbury and Stein, together with the First Trust Economics team, author these resources for the First Trust Economics Blog: The Antidote to Conventional Wisdom.

To win the award requires a strong forecasting performance across both GDP and inflation variables over a 24-month forecasting period. To determine forecast accuracy, Consensus Economics examined contributions for the 2022 Real GDP growth and Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) forecasts received in response to their monthly surveys conducted between January 2021 and December 2022. They then used mean absolute error analysis to compare these forecasts to the reported outturns (the official estimates of 2022 GDP and CPI released between January and April 2023) to determine the firm with the most accurate forecast. To be considered for the award, a panelist must have participated consistently in the monthly surveys over the forecasting period to ensure no panelist gained an advantage through non-participation, or by only providing forecasts toward the end of the 24-month cycle, when the steady release of official data can assist forecasters in making revisions. The forecaster with the lowest average error rate was deemed to have been the most accurate over the testing period.

Brian Wesbury received an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management, and a BA in Economics from the University of Montana. The Wall Street Journal ranked him the nation’s #1 U.S. economic forecaster in 2001 and USA Today ranked him as one of the nation’s top 10 forecasters in 2004. Brian appears regularly on Fox, Bloomberg, CNBC and BNN Canada TV.

Robert Stein analyzes potential changes to the direction of economic policy coming from Washington, DC, has a unique perspective on the political landscape, and provides an in-depth look at the U.S. economy. He spent several years in the U.S. Treasury Department and also was chief economist for the Senate Budget Committee. Prior to his tenure on Capitol Hill and the Treasury Department, he was a journalist for Investor’s Business Daily where he covered the economy and authored many front-page stories. He received a BA in both Economics and Government from Georgetown University. He is also a CFA Charterholder.

For further timely, in-depth research, investment insights and award-winning market commentary from First Trust, please visit ftportfolios.com.

About First Trust

First Trust Advisors L.P. (“FTA”), a federally registered investment advisor, and its affiliate First Trust Portfolios L.P. (“FTP”), a FINRA registered broker-dealer, are privately held companies that provide a variety of investment services. FTA has collective assets under management or supervision of approximately $195 billion as of March 31, 2023, through unit investment trusts, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, mutual funds and separate managed accounts. FTA is the supervisor of the First Trust unit investment trusts, while FTP is the sponsor. FTP is also a distributor of mutual fund shares and exchange-traded fund creation units. First Trust and FTP are based in Wheaton, Illinois. For more information, visit ftportfolios.com.

The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.

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