FWP
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-153150
November 20, 2008
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DATE
TIME
STATION
LOCATION
PROGRAM
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11/19/2008
08:00 09:00
Business News Network() ()
National Canada
The Street |
BROADCAST TRANSCRIPT
LINDA SIMS, anchor:
Well, were going to talk now about gold. You know, a lot people would like to see the price
of gold futures heading higher, but there sure has been a lot of demand for gold products
themselves. Were going to find out how this is working from the World Gold Council. Thats up
next.
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(Unrelated Material)
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SIMS: The World Gold Council has just released its latest report on gold demand this morning, and
it seems investors sopped up $32 billion worth of gold in the third quarter, a new record in terms
of dollar value. For more on the extensive report, were joined from New York by George
Milling-Stanley. Hes the director of the World Gold Council.
Very good to see you this morning.
Mr. GEORGE MILLING-STANLEY (World Gold Council): Thanks for inviting me, Linda. Nice to be here.
SIMS: Tell us a bit more about your report, a record demand in dollar terms for gold. Its
interesting that doesnt jive with what weve been seeing on the futures market. Is it that
investors have been drawn more to the product itself?
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: I think its, you knowthese numbers are spectacular, no question about
that, up 51 percent in dollar terms, 45 percent above the previous record for any quarter set just
in the second quarter of this year. Some recovery in jewelry consumption, up about 8 percent in
volume, obviously the big story being investment, not translating into gold prices though. And I
think this is mainly because gold has been acting as a kind of insurance policy for investors.
Theyve been able to sell gold into a good, deepened liquid global market in order to protect
their investments in equities and other instruments. So gold is really fulfilling its
traditional safe haven role, if you like, protecting other investments.
SIMS: It certainly has. Weve got a chart, though, I want to put up, and this shows the physical
demand and the pricethe price of theand this is the price of the physical gold itself, has
been going up steadily. And the tonnes look to stay about steady year-over-year, although I want
to know how you see that heading into the future.
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Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: Well, I guess a lot is going to depend on volatility. Volatilityhigh
volatility tends to deter jewelry purchases and jewelry is still somewhere around two-thirds or
three-quarters of every years consumption. If the price remains exceptionally volatile through
the rest of the fourth quarter, as it has been for some months now, that will act as a drag on any
tendency for growth in jewelry. But we would see continuing strong investor demand.
As I say, its acted as an insurance policy. When youve cashed in your insurance policy
successfully, its done the job that you bought gold for in the first place, then I believe
investors are likely to buy it back just as soon as they feel that they can afford it.
SIMS: Well, its interesting. Another chart that we have shows jewelry demand. This one, we can
see the amount of tonnes actually falling. But the dollar value continues to rise. Can that
trend continue?
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: I think that what we saw in Q3 was that the tonnage terms in jewelry was up
about 8 percent. I think thats a very, very good recovery. Its a high number. It will surprise
some people whod been thinking that jewelry was merely flat right now around the world, obviously
most of the growth coming in India, the major consuming market, masking if you like a downturn in
Europe and in North America. But then this is where we are already biting the bullet, as far as bad
economic conditions are concerned, so thats as to be expected.
A lot will depend on what happens with economic recovery, if I can dare use the R word this
early in the cycle. But we will, as I say, seek continued good, strong investor demand for gold.
Its doing what its supposed to do. And around the world theres a growing appreciation for the
strategic benefits of a small allocation to gold in a properly balanced portfolio. Weve seen the
evidence of that recently, and well see that continuing through Q4 and into next year, Im sure.
SIMS: Now, you mentioned the gold demand in India, and indeed it was up what, 31 percent
compared to the same quarter last year. But is this also seasonal in India, because we hear of
the Indian wedding season, for example?
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: Yeah, it is seasonal. Typically thetowards the end of the third quarter is
when demand in India tends to pick up, and this year was no exception. But you know, we try to
iron out those seasonalities, if you like, by comparing the third quarter of 2008 with the third
quarter of 2007. And there were seeing some pretty good gains.
The monsoon rains are already in. Theyve fallen. We know that they were good. We know that
harvests are already showingshowing out to be pretty good in most of the major agricultural
crops. And remember that 70 percent of Indias gold consumption comes from the rural populations
who depend on agriculture.
So theyre now into their big festival season. Wedding season is also starting right now. So we
would expect demand in India to continue strong for some months to come.
SIMS: Interesting that you noted, as well, that while we see this growing demand, the
supplies have actually been falling, down about 10 percent. Whats behind that? Is it the
mining sector or is it the central banks?
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: Well, mine production was actually up just a little bit, you know, just a
couple of percentage points. We still see not much scope for the growth in mine production
because of the long period in the 1990s of depressed prices when the industry couldnt afford to
invest in looking for future mines.
The major difference in terms of the supply side for Q3 was the central banks decided to sell a
good deal less than they had. We had a fall of about 4/5, 1 think, in central bank selling in the
third quarter. I think partly this is because a lot of the big holders in Europe have already
completed the programs they wanted to sell.
Also I think maybe the somewhat higher price has acted, if you like, as something of a disincentive
for a few central bankers. Theyd rather hold onto gold at these levels, and I dont blame them. Thats what Im
doing in my own portfolio, too.
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SIMS: Gold ETFs are where were seeing a lot of this gold flow. Is that how a lot of western
investors prefer to hold gold?
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: Western investors tend to be divided. There are still a lot of people who
want to buy the traditional small bars and bouillon coins, provided they can actually get the
supply. In fact, mints are on overtime at the moment, doing their best to satisfy the burgeoning
demand for those physical products.
But obviously, as you said, theres a very, very great deal of interest in gold exchange traded
funds. And the one that the World Gold Council sponsored, GLD on the New York Stock Exchange, we
saw inflows of over 100 tonnes in just five days at the height of the crisis in September when
Lehman collapsed and it looked like AIG would, until it was bailed out, as well.
So these products have done exactly what they were supposed to do for investors, providing them
with easy access to the gold market. And investors have come in in droves, in every way, both in
ETFs and in bars and coins, too.
SIMS: And do you see that continuing, as it looks as if the recession around the world is going to
deepen before things do start to improve?
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: Yeah, recession is likely toas I say, to slow any tendency for
growth in the jewelry demand. But it is likely to increase investment demand. And gold has been
a very, very good source of protection for portfolios for investors. I dont see that going
away. I would see investment demand continuing to increase as theres a growing appreciation
for the role that gold can play for investors.
SIMS: OK, great to get your thoughts this morning. Thanks for sharing your survey with
us.
Mr. MILLING-STANLEY: Thank you, Linda. Nice to be here.
SIMS: Our guest has been George Milling-Stanley. He is director of the World Gold Council.
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