What Happened?
Shares of solar tracker company Nextracker (NASDAQ: NXT) jumped 10.7% in the afternoon session after an upgrade from Guggenheim to 'Buy' from 'Neutral,' citing favorable new guidance from the IRS on clean-energy tax credits. The investment bank set a $74 price target on the stock, representing about 22% upside from its prior close. The upgrade was driven by new guidance from the U.S. Treasury and IRS regarding clean-energy tax incentives. Specifically, updated "safe-harbor" rules now clarify that racking installation—a core part of Nextracker's business—qualifies as physical work for tax credit purposes. Analysts at Guggenheim view this as a significant positive development for solar tracker suppliers. The news was well-received by the market, sending Nextracker shares to an all-time high and lifting other solar stocks as the guidance was seen as broadly better than feared.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Nextracker’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 33 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Nextracker and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock dropped 3.3% on the news that an unexpectedly sharp rise in wholesale inflation fueled concerns about rising costs and their impact on corporate profits. The primary catalyst was the July 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, which jumped 0.9% against forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This represents the most significant monthly increase in over three years, pointing to mounting cost pressures for manufacturers, with tariffs cited as a key factor. This data complicates the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions, as persistent inflation may prevent rate cuts, creating a headwind for cyclical sectors like Industrials.
Nextracker is up 71.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $67.59 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Nextracker’s shares at the IPO in February 2023 would now be looking at an investment worth $2,219.
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