KBRA Releases Monthly CMBS Trend Watch

KBRA releases the March 2025 issue of CMBS Trend Watch.

Amid prevailing economic and political uncertainty, U.S. CMBS private label issuance exhibited continued strength. Through March, year-over-year (YoY) issuance doubled (increasing 107.7%) to $37.1 billion. Commercial real estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuance was 4.4x higher YoY at $8.4 billion, almost reaching the full-year 2024 volume of $8.7 billion. Spreads have been widening recently, but based on our current visibility, April could see up to 16 rated deals including eight single borrower (SB), five conduits, and three CRE CLOs. However, we are observing increased gestation periods for some conduits before they come to market—time will tell whether that is a blip or an early sign of creeping uncertainty.

In March, KBRA published pre-sales for eight deals including five conduits ($4.4 billion), two SBs ($2.7 billion), and one Freddie Mac (Agency) ($887.9 million). March’s surveillance activity included rating reviews of 584 securities issued in connection with 54 transactions, including 33 conduits, 11 Agencies, six SBs, two CRE CLOs, one small balance commercial, and one large loan transaction. Of the 584 ratings, 486 were affirmed (83.2%), 93 were downgraded (15.9%), and five were upgraded (0.9%). In addition, six ratings were placed on Watch Downgrade, and six ratings were maintained on Watch Downgrade.

This month’s edition also highlights recent KBRA research publications that cover various topical issues.

Click here to view the report.

Recent Publications

• 2025 CMBS Sector Outlook: Twin Peaks?
• From Origination to Stabilization: Can CRE CLOs Bridge the Gap?
• CREFC High-Yield, Distressed Assets, & Servicing Conference 2025 Recap
• New York City Leads CMBS Multifamily Issuance as Distress Jumps
• KBRA Examines CMBS GSA Risk Amid Government Cuts
• CREFC January Conference 2025 – Day 3 Recap
• CREFC January Conference 2025 – Day 2 Recap
• CREFC January Conference 2025 – Day 1 Recap
• 2024 CMBS Loan Maturities: Payoff Rates Decrease
• KBRA CMBS Loss Compendium Update: December 2024
• CMBS Trend Watch: February 2025
• CMBS Loan Performance Trends: March 2025

About KBRA

KBRA, one of the major credit rating agencies, is registered in the U.S., EU, and the UK. KBRA is recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency in Taiwan, and is also a Designated Rating Organization for structured finance ratings in Canada. As a full-service credit rating agency, investors can use KBRA ratings for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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